WE look to get in some early value as we take a look at some Matchday 27 action in the Bundesliga.

Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin

  • The Berlin derby kicks off Matchday 27 on Saturday morning (AEST) and there’s quite a few intriguing angles to look at here.
  • The hosts are coming off a strong 3-0 win under new manager Bruno Labbadia and looked a more solidified unit than the one that has laboured through much of the season.
  • Meanwhile, Union are coming off a 2-0 loss to league-leaders Bayern in what was a scrappy affair and have cause for concern in the run-home given their reliance on their home form to pick up points.
  • The visitors have managed just three wins away from home all season and have conceded 25 goals while finding the back of the net just 14 times. This is a side, perhaps more so than any other in the league, that feed off their supporters during games and looked noticeably less aggressive in their outing last weekend.
  • So far this season, Union are giving up a worrying 1.21xGA in the second half of games and have conceded more goals in the final 15 minutes (12) – the second worst in the division. They also average more shots, goals and xG/Sh (expected goals per shot) in the second 45 minutes of games on the season.
  • Hertha have also been far more productive in the second half of games this season, scoring 24 times in the second 45 minutes as opposed to just 11 times in the opening period. Defensively, they’re the only team in the league to concede more goals in the final 15 minutes of games than their rivals as well (13).
  • The home side will feel the pressure of winning slightly more, but they’re also the more talented of the two teams. Labbadia seems to have found a system to bring out the best in this team going forward and while there’s still plenty of question marks around the side’s defensive capabilities they’ll create enough to take the three points here and build on last week’s momentum as they push for, what is still possible, a European birth.

Tip:

  • Hertha Berlin -0.25 @ $2.09 (Betfair)
  • Highest Scoring Half: 2nd Half @ $2.05 (TAB)

Freiburg v Werder Bremen

  • Panic stations are officially in full operation amongst Bremen supporters as the likelihood of relegation becomes a genuine possibility.
  • Meanwhile, Freiburg have trended in the other direction this season, with the club very much in contention for a Europa League spot. An impressive effort last week saw them settle for a point against high-flying RB Leipzig but this game figures to be an altogether different prospect from the one they featured in last week.
  • Their attempts to sit back and frustrate their opponents last week certainly won’t be the approach in this one, and that change in approach should lend itself to a very open game given how Bremen are likely to line up as well as their desperation for points.
  • Bremen have taken the lead in 13 of their 25 league games this season and are seeing an average of 3.69 goals per game on their travels this season. They’ve also seen a league-high 10 away games result in both teams finding the back of the net.
  • Despite conceding just 14 goals in their 12 home games this season, Freiburg are still allowing a worrying 1.59xGA on their home soil this season. That said, they’ve been held scoreless just twice here all season.
  • This should be, as mentioned, a far more open affair to the one Freiburg were involved in last week and the 2-2 draw between these sides in the reverse fixture is probably a better indication of what to expect here.

Tip: Over 2.75 goals @ $1.99 (Betfair)

Paderborn v Hoffenheim

  • Hoffenheim will look to put an end to a barren run of results when they travel to struggling Paderborn.
  • The visitors were arguably the better side in their 3-0 loss to Hertha last week. They recorded a 2.79xG in that loss and currently own a 1.39xG on their travels this season.
  • Their defensive record is also misleading away from home; despite conceding only 12 goals they give up a 1.78xGA.
  • Paderborn are seeing a league-high 2.08 goals per game in the opening 45 minutes, which is largely due to the fact they’ve conceded at least a goal in 11 of their 13 home games this season. They’ve conceded 30 goals in the opening 45 minutes of games this season.
  • Hoffenheim own an impressive 0.88xG in the opening 45 minutes of games in the Bundesliga this season and managed three goals in the opening half of the reverse fixture.
  • This is a great piece of value and we should see an open game as the visitors look to turn the tide and resume their pursuit of a European birth.

Tip: 1st Half: Over 1.5 goals @ $2.46 (Betfair)

Schalke v Augsburg

  • Schalke return home off a 4-0 battering to bitter rivals Dortmund last weekend and the pressure on David Wagner’s men is intensifying as they continue to slide down the table.
  • The hosts will be desperate to make amends and return to the top six in the Bundesliga, and they couldn’t ask for a better opportunity than against a team that has been nothing shy of horrific on their travels this season.
  • Augsburg looked resolute for the most past last weekend and looked destined for a point until an injury-time lapse cost them (and cost us too!). Their issues however have been an inability to create, let alone score, on their travels and they now face a team who has conceded just three times in the opening 45 minutes at home all season!
  • Wagner’s men have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their 13 home games in the league to date, whereas Augsburg have conceded in eight of their 13 away games so far. In fact, Augsburg give up a dismal 0.82xGA in the opening half of games this season.
  • We’ expect a strong response from the home side after their humiliation last week and while they were unable to turn possession in the final third into clear cut chances against a terrific Dortmund defence, they’re unlikely to face similar resistance in this one.

Tip: 1st Half: Schalke @ $2.72 (Betfair)

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