ONE of the most spoken about terms in sports betting is the ideology of “value betting”.

But, if we’re honest, do you really know what that means?

Here’s the funny thing about identifying value; there’s no universal rule for what is or isn’t value.

It ultimately comes down to how you calculate the probability of an outcome vs the probability implied by the market odds.

For example, let’s take a look at a head-to-head market.

Let’s use boxing as an example and cast our memories back to Floyd Mayweather v Connor McGregor. Whoever you spoke to, regardless of what side of the market they were playing, would tell you there was value in their play.

McGregor drew plenty of action on the market and dropped as low as $4.20 on fight night (I remember the number quite vividly), which was absolutely insane to say the least. The implied probability would suggest that the MMA fighter was a 24% chance to win outright.

Yes, (many) people were willing to argue that McGregor was a near 1 in 4 chance of beating the greatest boxer of this generation. Well, maybe they weren’t quite suggesting he had that much of a chance, yet they were still adamant that price represented value. Confusing, right?

Well, let’s try this; true value exists when the probability of an event is greater than what the markets suggest.

E.g. If I rolled a die and the market sat at Over/Under 3.5 with the prices at:

– Under 3.5 @ $1.85
– Over 3.5 @ $2.10

; it’s easy to point out that Over 3.5 is the value play, right? It’s a 50/50 chance (50%) yet we’re being given ‘value’ on the market due to the fact the implied odds of the outcome are 47.6%. Our edge (and value) lays in the 2.4% differential between the market probability and, in this case, the basic maths probability.

Unfortunately, identifying value in sports betting isn’t quite so straight forward and involves your own manual research or methodology to highlight any perceived value. (Alternatively, you can just let us do the hard work and reap the long-term rewards by joining our members program!)

What we do recommend is that you at least start by breaking down the implied percentage of a result based on the market odds. Here’s a quick and easy process to use:

{1/market odds x 100 = market probability}

E.g. Manchester City are $1.16 to beat Brighton and secure another Premier League crown. So:

{1/1.16 x 100 = 86.2%}

Do you believe that Manchester City are greater than an 86% chance at picking up 3 points tonight? If so, you can argue that City are in fact value despite their astronomically low odds. Does that mean you should play them? Probably not.

For a bettor to be successful in the long-term they must not only be able to identify where they believe the market probability is below your expected valuation, but they must also be able to create a profitable ROI that isn’t so volatile to small wins and big losses.

One loss on a $1.16 leg would mean you would need to win 13 straight legs at those odds just to make +1.00 units. That approach could see you spend the better part of a decade trying to double your starting bankroll and unless you’re doing this on the Betfair exchange market you will find almost no success making substantial profit from this approach on pre-game betting only.

So, next time someone says to you, “mate, they’re value at $3.50” – pull out your phone and discuss whether you (or your mate) truly believe they are better than a 28.6% chance at winning.

We can’t give away all our secrets on how we create our market edge, but you can most certainly make your own. There’s infinite data out there in the world – use it wisely and find your advantage.

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