IN this article we’ll give you some information about picks that we have our eyes on which should hopefully help you formulate your NFL DFS lines for each NFL week.
We’ll look at the main slate (3am Monday morning start) on Draftstars with the GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) in mind. This article is typically written on a Saturday so not all injury/transaction information will be to hand at the time so keep an eye on the players mentioned for any changes.
There is so much information out there for NFL DFS and a lot of it can be confusing with endless data. I want to keep this as simple as possible so anyone can pick it up and have a go. If you haven’t had a chance to read my ‘Beginners Guide to NFL DFS’ article then check it out to gain some basic insight and understanding on how to construct lineups.
Andrew Luck $18,010
Luck continues to defy all those that counted him out at the start of the season. While he may not have the full deep threat that he once possessed, he is still a top 10 QB and is a man on a mission through the middle part of the season. He has thrown at least 3 TD’s in his last 7 games and is sitting on a DS 6 game average of 23.8 FP’s. I challenge you to find a more consistent scoring QB at the moment, go check out the game logs! I understand he might scare some people off with these scores and use him just for cash, but against a soft Dolphins defence he could push that score even higher. Miami rank 22nd against the pass and while they don’t give up a huge amount of points to the QB (6th best), I have more trust in him getting to at least his average than those around him. My only concern here is the spread and pushing the points to Mack instead of Luck.
Nick ‘the GOAT’ Mullens $13,950
This game is expected to be a shootout with the highest total on the board at the moment, sitting at 54. Neither defence is very competent, in particular though the TB defence. They are getting absolutely smashed by all positions on the offensive side of the ball, especially by QB’s. They give up the most FP’s to QB’s on average and Mullens has shown he is a very capable QB. The Bucs also give up the 3rd most FP’s to WR’s and the 2nd most FP’s to TE’s which puts Goodwin and Kittles in great stacking spots to go with Mullens. TB ranks 30th against the pass and we’ve seen their secondary get lit up on many occasions throughout the season and I don’t think that stops this week. At this price point, I think Mullens could almost be the chalk QB play in GPP format given the upside opportunity against a porous TB defence. The top 4 most expensive QB’s this week have bottom 10 QB matchups so it might be the week to pay down at QB.
Other options – Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston
Melvin Gordon $20,450
I think this one picks itself given the matchup that Gordon has against the Cardinals. Arizona give up the 3rd most RB FP’s per game, even more than the Falcons and we all know how fun it is to attack the run D of those guys. Gordon is 1 of only 5 guys in the league that is getting over 20 touches per game, turning it in to a season average of 25.74 DS points per game. Gordon is a pass catching RB which always helps the fantasy production of a RB and pass catching RB’s is something Arizona has struggled with this season. The Chargers have the 4th highest implied team total and the -12 spread sets up perfectly for a potential 2nd half dominant run game. There is a question mark over his fitness so that might be something to monitor on Sunday night but if he’s active, I am rolling him out. The game script sets up perfectly for Gordon here and while I’d be comfortable to pay down to a CMC/Conner as my RB1, I still like Gordon ahead of them.
Josh Adams $7,690
If you want to fit some studs in to your lineup you’re always going to have to pay down somewhere and this week might be a good opportunity to come down at RB, given we’re likely spending up at TE as well as WR. Adams bust on to the scene last week with 16.2 DS points against the Saints, a team that has been very capable against the run this year. He put up 53 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD to go with his 19 yards through the air. He now matches up against a Giants team who sit 20th to the run give up the 10th most FP’s on average per game. The Eagles look like they have no answers at the RB spot since Ajayi went down but Adams has given them some stable production since coming in. After seeing his output last week, I am willing to take a chance here at just over $7.5k and limited other options
Other options – Marlon Mack, Nick Chubb
Stefon Diggs $16,580
I was going to write up OBJ here again given his matchup with a street sourced Eagles secondary, but Eli burned me last week with Shepard so the Giants can get stuffed (ok I might go back). Instead of OBJ, I’m turning my attention to Diggs who has been on fire his last 2 games. He’s averaged over 29 DS points and last week against a very capable Bears defence was one of his 2 most impressive performances of the season. The other impressive performance? Against the Packers, his opponent this weekend. In his earlier season matchup against GB he put up 35.9 DS points with a 128 yard, 2 TD outing. The Packers have actually gotten worse in the secondary since that game so you can expect that Cousins will have plenty of looks at his receiving group. GB giving up the 6th most FP’s to WR’s, sign me up for some Vikings stacks this Monday.
Adam Humphries $9,070
As I touched on in the Mullens (GOAT) preview, this game is expected to be a shootout with the 54 game total so why not run Mullens back with some Bucs WR’s and game stack this one. The Bucs have the 3rd highest implied team total on the board and get a 49ers secondary that is struggling to contain receivers. Humphries has been the 3rd WR behind Evans and Jackson in the Tampa offence and he’s shown some good upside when given the opportunity. He should see good looks this week against a SF secondary that ranks 2nd last against opposing WR3 position. I’ve watched plenty of Niners action this season and I can assure you that Jackson and Humphries are both going to get plenty of looks. I wouldn’t be opposed to game stacking this for an entire lineup – except D/ST. In fact, the 49ers and the Bucs have 3 combined INT’s for the season. Does Humphries have cash game appeal, probably not, but in GPP land he absolutely does.
Other options – Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett
George Kittle $11,600
What is this? I am paying up for a TE this week? Crazy talk! But in all seriousness, Kittle will be the chalk TE this week and especially if people are stacking him with Mullens. I heard during the week that Kittle has the 2nd most yards after the catch this season which is just ridiculous for a TE! He gets over 22% of the team targets, the most on the Niners team, and has the most redzone targets as well. I think we’ve been over how awful the Bucs defence is enough for you to know that this is an elite matchup for Kittle. Just for good measure though, here is some further evidence. Tampa Bay ranked 2nd last to the TE position and give up the 2nd most FP’s to them as well. For once I am prepared to pay up for a TE.
Other options – Jimmy Graham, Cameron Brate
Jacksonville Jaguars $7,140
This game on paper looks to be ugly and completely unwatchable, so let’s target both defences. I will focus on the Jags however as I trust their defence just a bit more than the Bills. Going against the Bills offence has been productive this season so let’s try and stick with it for another week. The Jags defence started the season strong but has come under serious pressure in the past month or so. Despite losing Fowler Jnr and having some flat performances, this defensive unit is still strong. Even though they lost last week, the defence had an above average outing after collecting 2 sacks and 3 INT’s against the Steelers. I think Ramsey and co will be quite keen to get on the field against Allen, especially after Ramsey’s comments about Allen being trash brought up again this week.
Other options – Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers
Agree or disagree with my picks? Whether you’re new to DFS or an old hand I’d love to hear from you. Feel free to drop me a tweet (@ausmojo), always open to answer any questions or chat DFS on Twitter.